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Ch27. 拆招CMF設計談趨勢預測信不信?

CMF is a specific discipline within industrial design that focuses on the development of a product’s color, material, and finish. Unwrap CMF shares bite-sized stories of CMF Design to inform and inspire those interested in this niche yet fascinating field, with digestible contents for anyone and everyone. Comments and inspirations are welcome!

As a long-standing hot topic in CMF Design, trend forecasting is sometimes misinterpreted, and is perhaps one of the most difficult CMF skill to self-learn.

Firstly, trend forecasting does not equal to competitor analysis. “Forecast” means looking into the future, but the latter relies on existing products in the market instead of future trends. That doesn’t mean competitor analysis is no use at all. It has its own pros, cons, and suitable applications.

Trend forecasting is also often challenged for being obscure. Try this: trend forecasting is like stock investment. We usually make a market research before buying stocks: how has it perform lately, what has been happening globally, to predict the future movements of the stock.

Even if you have done your homework, not every investment will go as you wish.
However, if you invest randomly without any research, your chance of success is no higher than lottery.

That says, the key of trend forecasting is the analysis of social movements. First, we must observe the changes in the world, what does that mean to people, and then transform the findings into design language. I have mapped out the methodology into the following four steps.

???? 1️⃣ Insights of Social Changes: What are the major events that have recently brought impacts to the society?
???? 2️⃣ Analysis of Emotional Climate: Which consumers’ collective emotions have these events caused?
???? 3️⃣ Solution for Emotional Negativity: What eliminates these negativity in consumer emotions?
???? 4️⃣ Translate into Design Element: How to visualize these emotional solutions?

Many companies such as well-known Pantone, WGSN, and major paint brands, may be doing their trend research differently, but never without these key steps.

This is just an introduction to trend forecasting. In the future, each step will be unwrapped, as well as podcast interviews with experts in the field. Stay tune??

Continue reading…
2022 CMF Trend Forecasting Workshop in Kaohsiung
2021 CMF Trend Forecasting Workshop in Taipei
2020 CMF Trend Forecasting Workshop in Kaohsiung

CMF為Color Material and Finishing,屬於工業設計旗下專注於產品色彩、材質、及表面處理工藝的關鍵一環。Unwrap CMF彩材拆拆圍繞著這個主題,以淺而易懂的小故事拆解CMF設計的日常。歡迎留言分享!

趨勢預測 作為CMF領域常年熱門的討論話題,卻經常被誤解,同時也是最難自學的技能之一。

首先,趨勢預測並非 競爭者分析 (competitor analysis)。「預測」代表未來,然而後者研究的是已上市的產品,並不能預見未來的走勢。但這並不代表競爭者分析無用武之地,這個研究方法也有它的優點、劣勢,以及適合運用的場合。

另一個對趨勢預測常見的質疑在於它的虛實。「不信趨勢者」並非少數,但其實趨勢預測就好比股票投資,在投資股票之前,我們或多或少都會研究一下 市場動態 ,從近期的表現,甚至是 國際局勢 ,從而推導股票可能的未來走勢。

即使做足了功課,也不是每次的投資都能順心如願。
不過,如果不研究市場動態就胡亂投資,那成功機率差不多就跟樂透一樣。

「凝視未來向來難做到十足精準,但是任何花功夫做出的預測,都有助於形塑你在設計、產品開發和品牌形象的未來方向。」

《跟著潮流預測權威WGSN》

也就是說,趨勢預測的重點其實在於對社會現狀的剖析,首先要觀察世界的轉變、轉變對於人們的意義、再進一步轉換成 設計語言 。為了方便理解,我把趨勢預測的研究方法論拆分成以下四個步驟。

???? 1️⃣ 洞察社會局勢:近期發生了哪些足以撼動局勢的大事件?
???? 2️⃣ 分析情緒氣候:這些大事件造成了哪些消費者的集體情緒?
???? 3️⃣ 推理情緒解藥:要如何緩解這些負面的消費者情緒?
???? 4️⃣ 轉化設計元素:如何視覺化這些情緒解藥?

業界許多公司如知名的潘通、WGSN、及各大油漆品牌等,各自的趨勢研究方式或許不完全相同,但都離不開這幾個關鍵步驟。

這篇只是趨勢預測的導論,未來會再針對個別的步驟一一補充,也會利用podcast訪談業界的趨勢預測專家,希望有助於大家一探趨勢預測的究竟??

延伸閱讀:
2022炙夏的高雄CMF趨勢預測工作坊
台北的CMF趨勢預測工作坊
CMF色彩材質小講座:趨勢篇

或許難以置信,但設計趨勢預測其實始於對全球時事的觀察,絕非花拳繡腿。圖中為研究美國消費市場的案例。
It may be unbelievable, but design trend forecasting begins with the observation of global events and movements.
Sample in photo is a research to understand the U.S. consumer market.
2021年三月於台北的趨勢預測工作坊。
Trend forecasting workshop in Taipei, March 2021.
PPG油漆品牌的年度趨勢色盤,趨勢預測重點依舊圍繞在消費者洞察這個關鍵。
The annual trending color palette by PPG paint brand. Consumer insights is always the key to trend forecasting.




CMF學無止境,善用CMF關鍵字在網上深入鑽研,歡迎大家留言補充。
Enjoy learning? Use the CMF terminologies mentioned above and continue on with your own research journey on the web. Comments and inspirations are welcome!
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Problem-solving ??? ?????. Former head of CMF at Motorola. A New York-based and world-traveling Design Consultant with over 13 years of specialty in CMF Design. 高雄囡仔,前摩托羅拉CMF設計團隊負責人,目前定居於紐約並遊牧世界,任自由撰稿人兼CMF設計顧問,持續投入在CMF設計的科普推廣,並為WGSN及羅技等公司提供CMF專案支持或諮詢服務。

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